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Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks

机译:风险感知对时间网络中流行病传播的影响

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摘要

Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have beenobtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numericalstudies, considering host populations with very different structures andproperties, including complex and temporal interaction networks. Moreover, anumber of recent studies have started to go beyond the assumption of an absenceof coupling between the spread of a disease and the structure of the contactson which it unfolds. Models including awareness of the spread have beenproposed, to mimic possible precautionary measures taken by individuals thatdecrease their risk of infection, but have mostly considered static networks.Here, we adapt such a framework to the more realistic case of temporal networksof interactions between individuals. We study the resulting model by analyticaland numerical means on both simple models of temporal networks and empiricaltime-resolved contact data. Analytical results show that the epidemic thresholdis not affected by the awareness but that the prevalence can be significantlydecreased. Numerical studies highlight however the presence of very strongfinite-size effects, in particular for the more realistic synthetic temporalnetworks, resulting in a significant shift of the effective epidemic thresholdin the presence of risk awareness. For empirical contact networks, theawareness mechanism leads as well to a shift in the effective threshold and toa strong reduction of the epidemic prevalence.
机译:考虑到具有不同结构和特性(包括复杂和时间相互作用网络)的宿主种群,通过大量的建模工作以及分析和数值研究,在了解流行病传播模型方面取得了许多进展。而且,最近的许多研究已经超出了疾病传播和其展开的接触子结构之间不存在耦合的假设。已经提出了包括传播意识的模型,以模仿个体为降低感染风险而采取的可能的预防措施,但大多数情况下考虑的是静态网络。在此,我们将这种框架调整为适应个体之间相互作用的时间网络的更实际案例。我们通过时间网络的简单模型和经验时间解析的联系数据,通过分析和数值方法研究所得模型。分析结果表明,流行阈值不受意识影响,但流行率可大大降低。然而,数值研究强调了存在非常强的有限效应,特别是对于更现实的合成时态网络而言,导致在存在风险意识的情况下有效流行阈值发生了显着变化。对于经验接触网络,意识机制还导致有效阈值的变化以及流行率的大幅降低。

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